CBO Report on ACA Repeal without Replacement

The Congressional Budget Office recently released a How Repealing Portions of the Affordable Care Act Would Affect Health Insurance Coverage and Premiums report.  The report was prepared at the request of the Senate Minority Leader, the Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Finance, and the Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.  The report estimates effects of repealing ACA mandate penalties and subsidies.  In the first year, the number of uninsured would increase by 18 million, and premiums in the nongroup market (ie, individual policies purchased through marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase 20%-25%.  “After the elimination of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid eligibility and of subsidies for insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces,” the number of uninsured would increase to 27 million, then 32 million in 2026.  Premiums in the nongroup market would increase about 50%, then be about double in 2026.  In the first half of 2016, under the ACA or “Obamacare,” the uninsured rate was 8.9% (down from 16% in 2010).  [The CBO is a nonpartisan agency that produces “independent analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process.”]